Bernie’s Chances

Is it possible for Elephants to do something sensible? I guess eventually, when they remember to. Over this past week, two Republicans came to their senses and did the sensible thing. They dropped out. So long, Ted Cruz and John Kasich! See ya in three years.

This leaves just one contender fighting an uphill battle for a nomination, and that is Bernie Sanders on the Donkey side. Is this man insane, or does he have a reasonable chance to beat Hillary Clinton for the nomination? He thinks so, and says he’s aiming for a contested convention, where he will win over unpledged delegates (super delegates), and become the Democratic Party’s standard bearer.

Let’s crunch the numbers, to see if Bernie is in his right mind.

There will be 4,765 total delegates at the Democratic National Convention this July. Of these, 4,051 will be pledged delegates. This means they will be bound by rules to vote for whomever they were assigned to vote for, after their state primary or caucus. At least in the first round of voting.

2,383 delegates are needed for nomination. After Bernie’s victory in Indiana on May 3rd, he had 1,414 pledged delegates, and 41 unpledged delegates. Hillary had 1,704 pledged delegates, and 498 unpledged delegates. It seems a lot more unpledged delegates support Hillary than Bernie. But Bernie vows to change that.

Bernie currently needs 928 more delegates to secure the nomination. There are 1,108 delegates remaining, so that means he needs 84% of these remaining delegates to beat Hillary. If he wants to beat Hillary with pledged delegates only, then he needs 969 more pledged delegates. However, there are only 933 pledged delegates remaining. Therefore it’s impossible for Bernie to win the nomination in this manner. This explains why he says he’s going to make a play for the super delegates at the convention.

It seems to me that if Bernie is going to have any chance of winning over the super delegates at the convention, he has to enter the convention with more pledged delegates than Hillary. This seems possible. Hillary currently has 1,704 pledged delegates, which is only 290 more than Bernie. In fact, Hillary would have to win 73% of the remaining pledged delegates before she can secure the nomination with no help from super delegates. It’s highly unlikely she will do this.

Super delegates can change their minds at any time. So the super delegates Hillary currently has can jump ship for Bernie if they decide that is more politically expedient. And they probably would if Bernie entered the convention with more pledged delegates than Hillary. Bernie could then make the case that the majority of Democrats favored him, and not his opponent. Super delegates would have a hard time justifying their votes for Hillary.

If Bernie is to overtake Hillary in pledged delegates before the convention, he will need to win 66% of the remaining available pledged delegates. That is a very steep hill to climb. Not impossible, and if Bernie is the little engine that could, who knows, perhaps he’ll make it. But first he has to win over California. California has 475 delegates to divvy up. It’s the big enchilada. And recent polling shows Hillary with a double-digit lead over Bernie in the Golden State.

Bernie’s challenge is to not only close that double-digit lead over Hillary by June 7th (California’s Primary day), but to also take a strong lead. I mean a VERY strong lead. To the tune of about 66% to 33%.

California may have to fall into the ocean, for Bernie to win.
California may have to fall into the ocean, for Bernie to win.

Under what scenario could this happen? Here’s a few that come to my mind: Hillary gets indicted for reckless e-mailing. Hillary divorces Bill and becomes engaged to Donald Trump (after he, of course, divorces Melania). Hillary announces that she still supports Barry Goldwater. Hillary’s birth certificate reveals she was born in Kenya. Hillary proclaims that California is full of a bunch of commie hippies, and expresses a desire for it to fall into the ocean after the next earthquake. Or, California actually does fall into the ocean, while Bernie wins big in all the other states.

In other words, this is mostly Hillary’s football to fumble. Can Bernie still beat her? Sure he can. Will he? Don’t sell your bank stocks short on it.

My bet is on Hillary.

Advertisements

6 thoughts on “Bernie’s Chances

  1. (Sorry, I can’t speak Unicorn.) Unlike Cruz and Kasich, the Sanders campaign cut staff so he would have money to keep running. His contributors want him to do that, and he and 75% of his supporters say they will still vote HRC if she wins the nomination. Every time he brings up an issue or policy, she has to answer it. If he goes to the convention with all his delegates, he will be able to dictate terms on the party platform, and running mate choices. I don’t see much downside to him continuing, even if he loses.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Yeah, he’ll be able to throw a lot of weight around at the convention. It makes sense that’s the real reason why he keeps at it. Along with perhaps the off-chance she gets indicted.

      Like

  2. I don’t know if Bernie can pull it off. But if he doesn’t, I’ll write him in on my presidential ballot. And hope that every other Bernie supporter will do the same. Wouldn’t that be historic? Our first write-in president? 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

Myths & fables recounted here:

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s